A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey
نویسندگان
چکیده
For Turkey to achieve the targets of Vision 2023 being in top ten economies world, eleventh National Development Plan (NDP11) focuses on ensuring uninterrupted, high-quality, sustainable, reliable and affordable energy supply. In this regard medium- long-term supply-demand planning is regarded as a key input process. Medium possible only when forecasts are available. Using Turkey’s electrical consumption data from 1970 2015, study presents novel Gaussian, Fourier Exponential curve fitting extrapolation approaches forecast up year 2025. Major interest put how model for because marks century establishment Republic all strategic plans focused outline 2023. We evaluate performance models best they Our 352.7TWh, 377.4 TWh, 460.1TWh respectively which compare well with NDP11’s estimated 375.8 TWh
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Sakarya university journal of computer and information sciences
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2636-8129']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902